The paper market has a smooth transition at the end of the year, and the industry leader enjoys the cost brand advantage. This week, some of the spray paper manufacturers lowered the ex-factory price, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the wood pulp market is stable, and most paper mills are still in good condition. However, in the case of paper mills consciously controlling production capacity and operating rates, supply pressure has not increased. We believe that the domestic paper market will remain stable in the short term, and the operating rate of paper mills will be determined according to the progress of inventory digestion; as the end of the year approaches, downstream demand is expected to improve and the market will pick up. Continue to give the consumer paper industry a "buy" rating, H shares recommended Hengan International, Vinda International, A shares recommended Zhongshun Jierou.


The residential price of Baicheng City has risen for six consecutive months. The latest results of the “old-for-new” policy trial results show that the residential price of Baicheng City has risen continuously for the sixth consecutive month since the fall in June this year, and the signs of real estate recovery have strengthened. At the same time, the “old-for-new” policy of furniture trials in Beijing has achieved remarkable results, and the pilot sales enterprises have completed sales of over 150 million yuan. We expect that the release of housing just needed and the introduction of the new furniture policy will provide demand support for the improvement of furniture companies' performance next year. Customized furniture mainly faces the marriage crowd, and the personalized customization meets the consumer taste of young people. The performance will be stronger than the overall furniture industry, giving Sophia a “buy” rating to the custom wardrobe industry.


Demand from the downstream textile industry continued to be weak, and the price of dissolving pulp products was difficult to support this week. The prices of some dissolving pulp products continued to fall slightly, and the prices of domestic cotton pulp and lint cotton also remained low. Affected by the continued weakening of downstream textile demand, the dissolving pulp industry is hard to see in the short term, and the timing of investment has not yet arrived. We will not recommend the relevant listed companies for the time being.


Plastic packaging materials prices continue to fluctuate, focusing on low-value consumer goods packaging leaders this week, plastic packaging materials prices continue to fluctuate slightly, the downstream market production growth differentiation is obvious, of which food and beverage and daily cosmetics growth is the most stable. The “plasticizer” incident has limited overall impact on the plastic packaging industry, and the valuation of companies whose stock prices have been suppressed recently has been very attractive.


Considering the stability of the company's operation and management, we recommend Yongxin and Hexing Packaging.


The risk indicates that the economic growth rate has exceeded expectations and the wood pulp and packaging materials have exceeded expectations.

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