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Game One is the investment logic for the industry: the printing industry belongs to the growth industry, the profit is mainly determined by demand; the packaging industry belongs to the cyclical industry, and the profit is mainly determined by the gross profit margin. Game 2 is the dominant factor in the demand of the printing industry: the demand for publishing, bill printing and cigarette printing is dominated by the market, the government and the market are jointly led, and the government is leading. Game 3 is the decision mechanism for the gross profit margin of the packaging industry: the change in gross profit margin depends on the difference in amplitude and time difference of the cost and income in the cycle.
Printing industry: limited growth, optimistic about the demand for cigarette printing and printing by the market, the growth rate is less than 5%; bill printing demand is jointly led by the government and the market, the growth rate is synchronized with GDP; the demand for cigarette printing is dominated by the government, and the growth rate is About 8%. Therefore, investment opportunities in the printing industry come from government-led demand growth: first, the development of the lottery market; second, the integration of the cigarette industry.
Packaging industry: sector rotation, opportunity long-term storage cost and revenue cycle results: the gross profit margin of the paper packaging industry mainly comes from the difference in cycle amplitude, while the gross profit margin of the plastic packaging and metal packaging industry mainly comes from the cycle time. The difference in points. In the short term, defensive varieties of metal packaging and paper packaging have investment opportunities; in the long run, packaging leaders will benefit from industry chain extension and industry integration.
Investment suggestion stocks give the industry a “neutral†rating and believe that there are long-term and staged investment opportunities both inside and outside the cycle.
Long-term investment opportunities come from industry integration, recommend Yongxin shares and Jinjia shares, it is recommended to pay attention to Dongfeng shares and Hongbo shares; short-term opportunities come from cost reduction, recommend Wanshun shares, Shanghai Green New and Li Peng shares.
The innovation of the report is based on the complex nature of the printing and packaging industry and the unclear investment logic. The relevant parties have created a research system that analyzes the industry's profit and investment logic from three major games, and has a detailed theoretical explanation of the core viewpoint. Rigorous empirical test.
The risk indicates that the economy has exceeded expectations and the raw material prices have rebounded.
The profitability of the printing and packaging industry depends on growth and cycle, government and market, cost and revenue.