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(1) Maintaining the “Neutral†rating of the papermaking sector: The low price of pulp stocks continued to rise this month, while the price of waste paper fell sharply. Due to the sluggish demand in the domestic market and the sluggish price, the price increase is still difficult. We believe that the price of pulp and paper have been at a historically low level, and the probability of continued sharp decline is large, but the increase in pulp and paper prices is also dependent on substantial improvements in future downstream demand conditions.
We believe that the paper industry is experiencing concentrated production capacity, and is still in the stage of digesting new capacity and eliminating backward production capacity. The recovery of downstream demand can really promote the increase of paper prices and enhance the profitability of enterprises. Tissue paper belongs to fast-moving consumer goods, has the characteristics of rigid demand, its product price is stable, and the low price of pulp brings rapid profit growth. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhongshun Jierou.
(2) Maintaining the “overweight†rating of the packaging sector: Various economic data continued to improve this month, and the growth of downstream consumer goods demand stabilized and rebounded, while the prices of major packaging raw materials remained low, effectively reducing industry costs.
We believe that the recent economic environment has improved slightly, and the signs of a slow recovery have been consolidated. Although the recovery process will be long, it is expected that the downstream demand growth rate of the industry will be 13% next year, a slight increase this year. It is recommended to pay attention to the reduction of the cost of benefit, and the growth of performance is determined by Shanghai Green New, the leader of the vacuum aluminum-plated paper industry; the downstream customers have broad resources, the market layout is perfect, and the national supply capacity of the paper packaging industry leader Hexing Packaging.
(3) Maintaining the “overweight†rating of the furniture sector: Near the end of the year, the growth rate of furniture exports declined this month, but the US housing market continued to improve, and the good trend of furniture export recovery is expected to continue; while the domestic housing market is picking up, the sales area of ​​commercial housing is accumulating. The year-on-year growth rate has turned from negative to positive, the growth rate of demand in the furniture industry has stabilized, and the industry's prosperity has been steadily recovering.
The trial of furniture replacement was completed, and the effect was remarkable. A total of 150 million yuan of old-for-new sales was completed, accounting for 26.3% of the total sales of similar furniture. Last weekend, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to expand domestic demand and promote consumption. We believe that furniture trade-in is expected to be promoted and become a new consumer expansion point. If the furniture trade-in policy is implemented nationwide, the brand building will be prominent and the domestic sales channels will be improved. Enterprises can benefit from it, and it is recommended to pay attention to Yihua Wood. In addition, we are perfecting the national strategic layout, with good growth and defense capabilities. Sofia, a leading wardrobe company, is also worthy of attention.
Risk warning: (1) Real estate sales fell sharply (2) Downstream demand weakened further (3) Raw material prices rose sharply.